COVID-19 Hits January Passenger Demand

International Passenger Markets
 

January international passenger demand rose 2.5% compared to January 2019, down from 3.7% growth the previous month. With the exception of Latin America, all regions recorded increases, led by airlines in Africa and the Middle East that saw minimal impact from the COVID-19 outbreak in January. Capacity climbed 0.9%, and load factor rose 1.2 percentage points to 81.1%.
 
• Asia-Pacific airlines’ January traffic climbed 2.5% compared to the year-ago period, which was the slowest outcome since early 2013 and a decline from the 3.9% increase in December. Softer GDP growth in several of the region’s key economies was compounded by COVID-19 impacts on the international China market. Capacity rose 3.0% and load factor slid 0.4 percentage point to 81.6%.
 
• European carriers saw January demand climb just 1.6% year-to-year, down from 2.7% in December. Results were impacted by slumping GDP growth in leading economies during the 2019 fourth quarter plus flight cancellations related to COVID-19 in late January. Capacity fell 1.0%, and load factor lifted 2.1 percentage points to 82.7%.
 
• Middle Eastern airlines posted a 5.4% traffic increase in January, the fourth consecutive month of solid demand growth, reflecting strong performance from larger Europe-Middle East and Middle East-Asia routes, which were not significantly impacted by route cancellations related to COVID-19 at that time. Capacity increased just 0.5%, with load factor jumping 3.6 percentage points to 78.3%.  
 
• North American carriers’ international demand rose 2.9% compared to January a year ago, which represented a slowdown from the 5.2% growth recorded in December, although there were no significant flight cancellations to Asia in January. Capacity climbed 1.6%, and load factor grew by 1.0 percentage point to 81.7%.
 
• Latin American airlines experienced a 3.7% demand drop in January compared to the same month last year, which was a further deterioration compared to a 1.3% decline in December. Traffic for Latin American carriers has now been particularly weak for four consecutive months, reflecting continued social unrest and economic difficulties in a number of countries in the region unrelated to COVID-19. Capacity fell 4.0% and load factor edged up 0.2 percentage point to 82.7%.
 
• African airlines’ traffic climbed 5.3% in January, up slightly from 5.1% growth in December. Capacity rose 5.7%, however, and load factor slipped 0.3 percentage point to 70.5%.

Domestic Passenger Markets
 

Demand for domestic travel climbed 2.3% in January compared to January 2019, as strong growth in the US helped mitigate the impact from a steep decline in China’s domestic traffic. Capacity rose 3.0% and load factor dipped 0.5 percentage point to 78.9%.