August Sees Moderate Pick-up in Passenger Demand

International Passenger Markets

August international passenger demand rose 3.3% compared to August 2018, improved from a 2.8% year-over-year growth achieved in July. With the exception of Latin America, all regions recorded increases, led by airlines in Africa. Capacity climbed 2.9%, and load factor edged up 0.3 percentage point to 85.6%.

• Asia-Pacific airlines’ August traffic increased 3.5% compared to the year-ago period, which was an acceleration compared to a 2.6% rise in July. However, this remains well below the long-term average growth rate of around 6.5%, reflecting slowing economic growth in India and Australia as well as the impact of trade disputes. Capacity rose 3.9% and load factor slid 0.4 percentage point to 82.8%.
• European carriers saw August demand climb 3.7% year-to-year, fractionally up over a 3.6% increase for July. Capacity rose 3.4%, and load factor climbed 0.2 percentage point to 89.0%, which was the highest among regions. Slowing economic growth in key markets such as the UK and Germany, as well as uncertainties and disparate business confidence outcomes are behind the softer conditions for the continent’s air carriers.
• Middle Eastern airlines posted a 2.9% traffic increase in August, which was an increase from a 1.7% rise in July. While this was better than the average of the past twelve months, it remains far below the double-digit growth trend of recent years. Falling business confidence in parts of the region, combined with some key airlines going through a process of structural change and geopolitical tensions are all likely to be contributing factors. Capacity increased 1.3%, with load factor rising 1.3 percentage points to 82.4%.
• North American carriers’ international demand rose 2.5% compared to August a year ago, up from a 1.4% increase in July. Capacity rose 1.3%, and load factor grew by 1.0 percentage point to 88.3%. As with the Middle East and Asia Pacific, this performance represents an improvement from July, but remains relatively soft compared to long-term norms, most likely reflecting trade tensions and slowing global demand.
• Latin American airlines experienced a 2.3% demand increase in August compared to the same month last year, down from a 4.0% annual growth in July. Argentina’s financial and currency crises, combined with challenging economic conditions in Brazil and Mexico, contributed to the depressed performance. Capacity fell 0.3% and load factor surged 2.1 percentage points to 83.9%.

African airlines’ traffic climbed 4.1% in August, up from 3.2% in July. This solid performance comes after South Africa – the region’s second largest economy – returned to positive economic growth in Q2 2019. Capacity rose 6.1%, however, and load factor dipped 1.4 percentage points to 75.6%.

Domestic Passenger Markets