Solid but Moderating Passenger Demand in November

The International Air Transport Association (IATA) announced healthy but moderating global passenger traffic results for November 2018.

09 Ocak 2019 Çarşamba 14:36

Total revenue passenger kilometers (RPKs) rose 6.2% compared to November 2017, a slight deceleration from 6.3% growth in October. Capacity (available seat kilometers or ASKs) increased by 6.8% over the year-ago period, and load factor dipped 0.4 percentage point to 80.0%. It was only the third time in two years that load factor fell on a year-to-year basis.

“Traffic is solid. But there are clear signs that growth is moderating in line with the slowing global economy. We still expect 6% demand growth this year. But trade tensions, protective tariffs and Brexit are all uncertainties that overhang the industry,” said Alexandre de Juniac, IATA’s Director General and CEO.

November 2018 (% year-on-year)	World share¹	RPK	ASK	PLF (%-pt)²	PLF (level)³
Total Market	100.0%	6.2%	6.8%	-0.4%	80.0%
Africa	2.2%	2.2%	1.2%	0.7%	69.8%
Asia Pacific	33.8%	6.3%	7.4%	-0.8%	80.2%
Europe	26.7%	8.8%	8.8%	0.0%	81.7%
Latin America	5.1%	6.2%	6.0%	0.1%	82.0%
Middle East	9.4%	2.6%	5.2%	-1.8%	69.4%
North America	22.8%	5.1%	5.0%	0.0%	83.6%

¹% of industry RPKs in 2017 ²Year-on-year change in load factor ³Load factor level

International Passenger Markets

November international passenger demand rose 6.6% compared to the year earlier period, up from 6.2% in October. All regions showed growth, led by carriers in Europe. Total capacity climbed 6.7%, and load factor dipped 0.1 percentage point to 78.4%.

European carriers saw demand increase by 9.0% in November 2018, which was a nine-month high. Given the mixed signs on the economic backdrop in the region it is unclear whether this pace of growth can be sustained. Capacity climbed 9.1% and load factor slipped 0.1 percentage point to 82.1%, the highest load factor among the regions.
Asia-Pacific airlines’ November traffic climbed 6.0% compared to the year-ago period, up from 5.7% growth in October. Capacity also rose 6.0% and load factor was flat at 79.1%. Growth is underpinned by rising living standards and continuing expansion of options for travelers.
Middle East carriers had a 2.8% demand increase, which was the lowest among the regions for a third consecutive month. Capacity rose 5.6% and load factor slipped 1.9 percentage points to 69.0%.
North American airlines’ traffic climbed 6.1%, in November, up from 5.7% in October and well ahead of the five-year average rate of 4.0%. Capacity rose 3.8% and load factor edged up 1.7 percentage points to 80.6%. Demand is supported by comparatively strong momentum in the US economy.
Latin American airlines’ November traffic climbed 5.8% compared to November 2017, which was an increase from 5.2% growth recorded in October. Despite the increase, growth has slowed on a seasonally-adjusted basis. Capacity rose 6.6% and load factor slipped 0.6 percentage point to 80.6%.

African airlines experienced a 5.7% rise in demand compared to November 2017, down from 6.4% in October but higher than the five-year average of 5.8%. Growth is occurring despite challenges in the continent’s largest economies, Nigeria and South Africa. Capacity rose 3.9% and load factor climbed 1.2 percentage points to 68.9%.

Domestic Passenger Markets

Domestic travel demand rose 5.6% in November 2018 compared to the same month in 2017, its slowest pace in 11 months and down from 6.5% in October. All markets except Australia showed growth. Domestic capacity climbed 6.9%, and load factor dropped 1.0 percentage point to 82.8%.

November 2018 (% year-on-year)	World share¹	RPK	ASK	PLF (%-pt)²	PLF (level)³
Domestic	35.9%	5.6%	6.9%	-1.0%	82.8%
Australia	0.9%	-0.7%	-1.1%	0.3%	82.6%
Brazil	1.2%	5.3%	4.1%	1.0%	83.6%
China P.R	9.1%	7.2%	10.2%	-2.3%	82.0%
India	1.4%	13.3%	19.8%	-4.8%	84.4%
Japan	1.1%	1.5%	3.0%	-1.1%	75.6%
Russian Fed.	1.4%	13.8%	10.9%	2.1%	81.6%
US	14.3%	4.9%	5.9%	-0.8%	85.2%

¹% of industry RPKs in 2017 ²Year-on-year change in load factor ³Load factor level
*Note: the seven domestic passenger markets for which broken-down data are available account for 30% of global total RPKs and approximately 82% of total domestic RPKs

India’s domestic traffic rose 13.3% in November compared to November 2017, marking the 51st consecutive month of double-digit domestic growth. However, it was also the slowest increase in 16 months.
Brazil’s domestic traffic rose to a four-month high of 5.3% in November, against a fragile economic backdrop.

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