Air Cargo Peak Season off to Slow Start, Annual Demand down 3.5% in October

Regional Performance
 

Airlines in Asia-Pacific and the Middle East suffered sharp declines in year-on-year growth in total air freight volumes in October 2019, while Latin American and European carriers experienced a more moderate decline. Africa was the only region to record growth in air freight demand compared to October last year. 
 
• Asia-Pacific airlines saw demand for air freight contract by 5.3% in October 2019, compared to the same period in 2018. Capacity increased by 0.6%. The US-China and South Korea-Japan trade wars have negatively affected the region. And the disruption to operations at Hong Kong International Airport – the largest cargo hub in the world – continues to impact activity. However, the thawing of US-China trade relations and robust economic growth in key regional economies are positive developments. 

• North American airlines saw demand decrease by 2.4% in October 2019, compared to the same period a year earlier. Capacity increased by 3.1%. The underlying strength of the US economy has seen domestic air cargo outperform international which, as noted above, has also been impacted by the trade tensions with China.
  
• European airlines posted a 1.5% decrease in freight demand in October 2019 compared to the same period a year earlier – a significant improvement over the 3.5% decrease in September. Better than expected economic activity in Q3 in several of the region’s large economies helped support demand. Capacity increased by 2.8% year-on-year.  
 

• Middle Eastern airlines’ freight volumes decreased 6.0% in October 2019 compared to the year-ago period. This was the sharpest drop in freight demand of any region for the month. Capacity increased by 0.9%. Against a backdrop of operational and geopolitical challenges facing some of the region’s key airlines, seasonally adjusted freight volumes in the region have resumed a modest upwards trend which is a positive development for the region’s carriers.
 

• Latin American airlines experienced a decrease in freight demand in October 2019 of 2.6% compared to the same period last year.  Various social and economic headwinds in the region’s key economies have impacted the region’s air cargo performance. Capacity increased by 2.3% year-on-year.
 

• African carriers posted the fastest growth of any region in October 2019, with an increase in demand of 12.6% compared to the same period a year earlier. Strong trade and investment links with Asia contributed to the positive performance. Freight volumes on key Africa-Asia routes were up 23% annually in September (latest available data). Capacity grew 13.9% year-on-year.